Goshen, Indiana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS63 KIWX 051822
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
222 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remaining hot and muggy through Sunday.

- Scattered showers and storms Sunday afternoon-evening,
  especially along and north of US 24. Locally heavy rainfall,
  wind gusts to 40 mph and lightning the primary threats.

- Chances (20-60%) for showers lingering into Monday, mainly
  along and southeast of US 24.

- Dry with seasonable temps on Tuesday.

- Shower/storm chances (30-40%) return on Wednesday, best chances
  during the afternoon hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

Upper ridge providing the sunshine and hot conditions today will
break down tonight into Sunday as a dampening, positively tilted,
mid level trough tracks east into the western/central Great Lakes on
Sunday, eventually washing out overhead Sunday night. This feature
will force a moisture-laden cold front slowly southeast into the
local area Sunday into Monday. Pooled precipitable water values near
2", little in the way of capping, and expectations for a 1000-2000
j/kg of skinny SBCAPE should allow at least scattered convection to
develop along the cold front and/or any leading pre-frontal features
despite the lacking flow/forcing later Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon, best chances along and north of the US 24 corridor.
Lightning and localized torrential downpours will be the primary
hazards given progged 15-17C 850 mb dewpoints, a deep warm cloud
layer and slow cell motions with only ~15 knots of southwesterly
flow in the 850-700 mb layer parallel to the front.

Coverage/intensity of the convection should diminish into Sunday
night and Monday morning as the boundary layer stabilizes and the
front becomes increasingly diffuse. A model consensus stalls this
weak front and instability/moisture axis near or just south of the
US 24 corridor by peak heating Monday which could support renewed,
widely-scattered, convection here. Drier, less humid air across
northern portions of the forecast filters south thereafter into
Monday night and Tuesday with seasonably warm and dry conditions
anticipated.

Available model guidance continues to show broad, low amplitude west-
northwest flow aloft Tuesday night and beyond. This weak, quasi-
zonal, flow regime will set the stage for slow moving, convectively-
augmented, shortwaves to move through the Midwest and Great Lakes
with episodes of showers and storms. When and if any of these
convectively induced waves impact us locally remains of very low
confidence. The result was holding to NBM`s daily 20-40% PoPs,
highest during peak heating. Of higher confidence is the temperature
forecast, generally averaging out near to slightly above normal for
July standards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

VFR will persist through the overnight period with just some SCT
5kft cu. A cold front will approach the area Sunday morning. An
isolated shower is possible at KSBN during the early morning
hours but far better chances for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings will arrive at 18Z for KSBN and roughly 21Z for KFWA.
Therefore did not include a thunder mention with this forecast
given it is just outside the forecast window.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ177-277.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...AGD